The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says rising global commodity prices, particularly gold, were a major factor behind its decision to revise Ghana’s economic growth forecast for 2026 upwards to 5.7%.
The Director of the IMF’s African Department, Zeine Zeidane, explained that higher commodity prices could boost Ghana’s export earnings, improve its trade balance and support broader economic growth.
He made the remarks in response to a question from Joy Business during the release of the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook.
Mr Zeidane also highlighted Ghana’s economic performance in the first half of 2026 as another key factor informing the revised forecast, expressing confidence that the positive momentum would continue in the coming months.
“We believe that this momentum will be sustained going forward for Ghana,” he said.
He further commended Ghana’s fiscal performance, noting the country’s ability to maintain progress despite recent shocks arising from energy prices.
IMF Raises Ghana’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 5.7%
On October 13, 2026, the IMF raised its economic growth forecast for Ghana in 2026 to 5.7%, while projecting that year-end inflation would fall to 4.8%, despite persistent global economic pressures and uncertainty.
The revised growth projection represents an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the 4.6% forecast published in April 2026.
In the same report, the Fund lowered its year-end inflation forecast from 7.9% to 4.8%, signalling expectations of further moderation in consumer price increases.
The revised inflation projection is below the government’s and the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term inflation target of 8%, with a tolerance band of plus or minus two percentage points, translating into a range of 6% to 10%.
With Ghana’s inflation rate standing at 5.2% in September 2026, the IMF’s latest projection suggests that price pressures could ease further before the end of the year.
Bank of Ghana internal projections cited by Joy Business had anticipated an increase in inflation in September, while maintaining expectations that the year-end rate would remain within the central bank’s target band.
If the IMF’s projection materialises, Ghana will record single-digit year-end inflation for the second consecutive year, following a similar outcome in 2025.
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